Iran War Ends: Which Stocks Profit From Peace Settlement

The ceasefire announced in June 2025 between the USA and Iran continues to cause movement in global financial markets. After a period of considerable uncertainty, characterized by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a subsequent market crash, a clear restructuring of winning and losing sectors is now emerging.

Key Takeaways: Important Developments at a Glance

• The DAX rose nearly five percent following the ceasefire announcement in June 2025
• WTI oil prices fell significantly below $100 as tensions eased
• Morgan Stanley identifies consumer, financial and industrial stocks as the main winners of the peace development
• UBS sees travel, consumer and logistics stocks as price drivers, while defense and energy stocks could lose ground
• The ceasefire came into effect in June 2025, with further peace talks considered for May 2026
• The closure of the Strait of Hormuz had previously triggered a market crash

How Markets Reacted to the Ceasefire

The announcement of the ceasefire in June 2025 drove US stock markets to record highs for two consecutive days. The DAX rose noticeably, posting a gain of nearly five percent. This significant recovery demonstrates how severely markets had suffered from the preceding uncertainty.

The oil market developed particularly conspicuously: WTI crude oil prices, which came under massive pressure during the crisis due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, fell significantly below $100 following the de-escalation. This development reduces potential economic damage that would have resulted from persistently higher energy prices.

From late December 2025 through January 2026, Iran experienced mass demonstrations and strikes, triggered by the ongoing economic crisis and widespread public discontent. Despite these domestic political tensions, the USA and Iran are considering further peace talks, reinforcing hopes for a longer-lasting stabilization of the Persian Gulf.

These Sectors Benefit From the Peace Settlement

Consumer Stocks: From Normalcy and Predictability

Morgan Stanley names consumer stocks as one of the main winners in the new environment. These sectors jump immediately as uncertainty gives way to predictable normalcy once again. Consumer stocks suffer particularly during geopolitical crises, as consumers reduce spending in uncertain times. The return to stable conditions allows revenues and profit margins to rise again.

Travel and Logistics Stocks: Open Trade Routes as Price Drivers

UBS identifies travel and logistics stocks as central beneficiaries in the peace scenario. The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately one-fifth of global oil shipments are transported, was closed during the conflict and triggered a market crash. Its reopening now enables smooth cargo movement and significantly reduces transportation costs.

Airlines, cruise operators and logistics companies benefit doubly: On one hand through declining fuel costs due to lower oil prices, on the other hand through rising demand as travelers again visit destinations in the Middle East.

Financial Stocks and Industrial Equities: Cyclicals in the Ascendancy

Morgan Stanley bets on financial stocks and industrial equities – classic cyclical sectors that benefit from economic stability and growing confidence. Banks record increasing lending as companies resume investing. Industrial conglomerates receive orders that were shelved during the crisis.

Losers in the New Order: Defense and Energy

The UBS analysis makes clear: Defense and energy stocks could lose ground. During the conflict phase, US defense stocks, including smaller suppliers such as Astronics, ISSC and V2X, benefited from rising defense budgets. With de-escalation, the urgency for military spending diminishes.

Energy stocks suffer from falling oil prices. What is positive for the overall economy – lower energy costs – reduces profit margins for oil companies and exploration firms. WTI crude oil prices below $100 signal an end to the war-related risk premium.

Sanctions Relief as Additional Catalyst

The nuclear agreement JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) had already led in the past to the removal or at least significant easing of many restrictive measures against Iran. UN sanctions were lifted, EU sanctions related to the nuclear program were suspended, and a portion of US sanctions were loosened.

Further sanctions relief would enable European companies to access the Iranian market with approximately 85 million inhabitants. German, Austrian and Swiss companies in mechanical engineering, chemicals and automotive suppliers in particular could benefit from this opening.

Outlook: Normalcy as a New Narrative

The de-escalation in the Persian Gulf marks a turning point for global markets. Morgan Stanley succinctly formulates the new market logic: sectors that thrive on predictable normalcy replace crisis winners. The shift from defense and energy stocks toward consumer, travel and logistics reflects this realignment.

Investors in the DACH region (Germany, Austria, Switzerland) should note: The mentioned sectors respond sensitively to geopolitical setbacks. Should the peace talks fail or new tensions emerge, the current rally could quickly end. Broad diversification across different asset classes and regions therefore remains central.

The nearly five-percent DAX rally following the ceasefire announcement demonstrates the enormous potential of lasting de-escalation. Whether this development proves sustainable depends on further peace talks and political stabilization in Iran. The mass demonstrations from late 2025 through January 2026 underscore that economic recovery and political stability must go hand in hand.